The Saints' Chances

I'm not going to say that the Saints' chances of making it to the Super Bowl are completely gone.  Anything can happen, evidenced by the fact that the Seahawks lost to the Cardinals in Seattle.  That point is also evidenced by the fact that the Saints have lost three of their last four games, and now have a chance at both the second seed in the playoffs, and missing the postseason all together, after they started out the season 9-2, which at the time, everybody thought they would run away with the NFC South title, and ultimately, be a shoe-in for a first round bye.

Again, anything can happen, but the Saints' chances of winning out in the playoffs, and going to New York are not good.  First of all, in order to have the easiest route to the Super Bowl, the Saints need that first-round-bye, and for that first game to be in the Super Dome.  It can happen, but the chances are extremely small, because the Panthers have to lose to the Atlanta Falcons this week in order for that to happen.  And it goes without saying that the Saints must beat the Bucs, which will not be an easy task.   I am a huge Saints fan, but I am also a realist, and honestly, I will be really surprised if the Panthers lose to the Falcons.

If the Saints win this Sunday, they are in, but recent history indicates, that when the Saints have something to play for, they have not played well.  They got crushed in the game against Seattle when they were essentially playing for the top seed in the NFC.  They were embarrassed in St. Louis by the Rams when they were playing for that all important first round bye, the second seed, and the division championship.   They couldn't bring home the win when the same things were on the line against a surging division opponent in Carolina against the Panthers.  Recent history indicates that the Saints have not responded played well in important games.

Recent history also indicates that the Saints have not responded well on the road.  If the Panthers beat the Falcons, which on paper, is what in all likelihood should happen, and if the Saints beat the Bucs, which is not a given, the Saints will probably open the playoffs on the road, either in Dallas, or Philadelphia, then they will have to go to either Carolina, or Seattle, and finally the NFC championship will probably be on the road also.  The Saints have not responded well in meaningful games.  Each playoff game will be more significant and more meaningful than any game played in the regular season, and each will probably be on the road.  Again, I am being objective, and I don't like the Saints' chances.

The Saints' secondary has been decimated by injuries starting early in the year with the loss Patrick Robinson, then Jabari Greer, and now Kenny Vaccaro.  The Saints look to be getting Raphael Bush back and that may help, but it seems almost futile.

The Saints' offensive line has been deplorable this year, evidenced by the fact that it was announced that Drew Brees' knee is not 100% healthy.  I've never seen Drew Brees hit, and sacked more than he has been this year.  In cold-weather games, the running game will be important, and Ben Grubbs has been getting killed by interior defensive linemen throughout the year, and Jahri Evans has had far too many holding penalties.  Brian De La Puente has done all he could, but let's face it, we need an upgrade at the center position.

So many things are against the Saints favor, but they do have Drew Brees, and one of the best coaches in the business in Sean Payton.  We just have to beat the Bucs first, and hopefully the Falcons, who, at the beginning of the year, we never thought would be this bad, can pull an upset at home against Carolina.  Again, anything can happen.